Functional Technology Foresight: A Novel Methodology to Identify Emerging Technologies

The rapid evolution of technology calls for new methods to analyze and understand its impact. Focusing solely on technological goals can overlook key stakeholders and user needs. Additionally, the increasing importance of subtle signals in fast-paced markets can be distorted by hype and vested interests. Big Data offers a vast, low-cost source of information, but analyzing it, particularly in academic papers and patents, is challenging. This article proposes using Functional Analysis in technology foresight, which examines the functions an artifact must perform to meet user needs. This approach helps identify development patterns, missing elements, strengths, and potential failures… let’s see how.

Technology Evolution and the S-Curve Framework

Technological progress follows a predictable pattern of evolution, often represented as an S-curve. According to the S-curve model, technology is first introduced at point 0 in time. In the initial phase (Phase 1), development progresses slowly due to numerous implementation challenges and the absence of profits, as the technology requires significant investment in R&D. During the growth phase (Phase 2), the benefits of the technology become apparent, leading to the emergence of a profitable market. By this point, many issues have been resolved, and new investments contribute to further improvements in performance. In the maturity phase (Phase 3), both profitability and market diffusion peak. However, innovation slows down, with progress limited to minor enhancements, signaling the approach of market saturation. In the decline phase (Phase 4), further technological advancements are no longer possible, and the technology eventually gives way to a radically new solution.

Figure 1: S-Curves for a Given Technology

 

The key prediction of this model is that there exists a moment in time (point A in Figure 2) when it becomes more profitable to transition from the old to the new technology. This is because at another point in time (point B), the entire market will also shift to the new technology.

The latter process is illustrated in Figure 2, where point A represents the optimization phase and point B marks the transition to a new technology.

 

Figure 2: Types of Technology Evolution

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However, the model has limited predictive accuracy regarding when these points, A and B, will occur for a specific technology. While the model is theoretically sound, its practical application is hindered by the challenge of identifying the right level of analysis and accurately predicting the switching points. By focusing on functions rather than just technology or performance, it supplements traditional S-curve analyses and enables more abstract, generalized predictions about technological evolution. This is where functional analysis demonstrates its great power.

The Functional Technology Foresight methodology

The Functional Technology Foresight methodology aims to evaluate emerging technologies, identify the most promising products, and anticipate the scientific and social factors that would influence the future of the sector of interest.

The first step of the analysis involves gathering information from experts and industry sources to identify the most innovative or promising products. These are reorganized using a functional segmentation approach, leading to the creation of a detailed functional map. This map grouped technologies based on their functions, accompanied by labels describing the technology, market, and application. This approach provides a clearer understanding of emerging technologies and the areas where significant progress could be anticipated. Using the functional map, researchers can project these trends into the future, analyzing how the functions would evolve over time and identifying emerging solutions. This approach enables the discovery of technological solutions still in the exploratory stages.

One success case is represented by Emme Group. The company needed to remain competitive in the market, differentiate its products from competitors, enhance production process efficiency, and stay ahead of technological advancements in the industry. Through Erre Quadro’s Functional Technology Foresight and S-Curve modeling, Emme Group gained access to clusters of highly innovative technologies related to the production and application of latex in mattress manufacturing. This enabled the company to identify the most promising directions for developing new products and enhancing its existing catalog. This led to the creation of a new strategic product, which has become a flagship for the company and was awarded Product of the Year.

Conclusion
The Functional Technology Foresight methodology offers an innovative approach to identifying and understanding emerging technologies. By focusing on the functions that technologies must perform to meet user needs, it provides a deeper and more adaptable framework for predicting technological evolution. Its integration with traditional tools, such as S-curve modeling, enhances its predictive power and applicability across various industries, with the potential to transform technology analysis, making it more comprehensive and accessible to organizations of all sizes.

This article is partially taken from “Functional Technology Foresight: A Novel Methodology to Identify Emerging Technologies” by Riccardo Apreda, Andrea Bonaccorsi, Felice Dell’Orletta, and Gualtiero Fantoni. If you want to download the full article, click here.

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